Two days ago, the results of a major 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination poll was released by Quinnipaic University just north of New Haven, Connecticut. Here are the results from the web-site Real Clear Politics: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

As poll above indicates, the the top five front runners for the 2020 Democratic Nomination are:

Joe Biden (31.0 %)

Bernie Sanders (15.8%)

Elizabeth Warren (15.5%)

Kamala Harris (8.3%)

Pete Buttigieg (5.5%)

Tier Two Candidates beyond the top five are: Beto O’Rourke (2.5%), Cory Booker (2.3%), Andrew Yang (1.5%), Tulsi Gabbard (1.3%).

Regrettably, the remaining candidates – many of them excellent candidates – can be classified as the “Expendables”.

From a fund raising perspective, we see a similar pattern of Tier 1 and Tier 2 candidates; however, there is a surprising re-ordering. Specifically, Pete Buttigieg is the #1 candidate for fund raising in the 2nd quarter of 2019. Make note that both #1 fund raiser Buttigieg and #2 fund raiser Biden raised TWICE AS MUCH as #5 fund raiser Harris. Like runners in a marathon, the front runners (Pete is one of these fund raising front runners) are gaining greater distance and separation from those that lag behind.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/07/16/us/politics/democratic-fundraising-2020.html

From a fund raising perspective, the Tier 2 candidates are: Booker ($4.5 million), Klobuchar ($3.9 million), Inslee ($3.8 million), O’Rourke ($3.6 million) both Yang and Castro at $2.8 million.  Note that the bottom of the Tier 2 candidates raised about 10% of what the top candidate Pete Buttigieg raised.

Once again, these Tier 2 candidates are followed by the Expendables and with the utmost sincerity, this is regrettable, there are many excellent candidates in this 3rd Tier of “Expendables”. Notice that the Expendables have a high representation of moderate Democratic candidates.

Now, let’s review the three Top Tier candidates quickly. First and foremost, all three of the top tier candidates are O-L-D and really do not have the freshest most innovative ideas in the Democratic Party.

1). Joe Biden (Age 76)- the Obama Legacy candidate. US Senator from Delaware for 36 years! VP for Obama from 2009-2017; pro-ObamaCare (ACA) and not a supporter of Medicate for All; Biden is for enforcing immigration laws (he wants those that want to immigrate to the US to ‘stand in line’ and immigrate into the US through the formal legal process). Biden called by those in the Bernie Sanders camp “a closet Republican” See: https://dailycaller.com/2019/07/10/nyt-blasts-biden-closet-republican/

2). Bernie Sanders (Age 77) – an uncompromising Democratic Socialist who is pushing for fundamental change in American politics; Bernie is not up for compromises! Bernie’s main policy points are  Medicare for All, Free College Education and Immediate Action on Climate Change and Bernie is against the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.

3). Elizabeth Warren (Age 70) – a supporter of many of Bernie Sanders policies but Warren also identifies herself as a “capitalist”.  This positions Warren to stay close to Sanders as the pool of Democratic candidates narrows. To help narrow the pool of Democratic candidates and close the margin on Joe Biden, Warren will use her standard line of attacking moderate Democrats as “using Republican talking points”. Personally, I think this line and tactic is very unhealthy. It squelches genuine debate on proposed progressive policies.   However, I have a hunch that Warren’s tune will change!  Once the pool of Democratic candidates  narrows down to about 3-4 candidates, Warren will make her move and attack Bernie Sanders as being too socialist while Warren will begin to promote herself as a “progressive capitalist”. Ouch!!! Watch out Bernie!! You might get “berned” by your one-time ally Senator Warren!!! Warren will use a similar strategy Bill Clinton used on Paul Tsongas back in 1992.  Check out this great article on Paul Tsongas and his 1992 Presidential campaign against Bill Clinton. https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2017/03/19/a-look-back-at-paul-tsongass-unorthodox-bid-for-the-white-house-25-years-later

Here is how the Elizabeth Warren camp will want this to play out in the end.

Biden and Bernie, watch out for Elizabeth Warren! She will out maneuver both of you!!! She will use the Bill Clinton playbook from 1992. These moves worked for Clinton against Tsongas in 1992. They will work for Warren against Sanders in 2019.  The big question will be: While Warren may out maneuver Biden and Bernie, can she beat Trump!! This is the BIG QUESTION!

There will be a Part II to this posting. In Part II, the discussion will focus on the loss of the ideas of the Tier 2 and Tier 3 candidates.  These Tier 2 and Tier 3 candidates have lots of great ideas that go way beyond Biden, Bernie and Warren. If the 2020 Democratic Nomination race narrows down to the battle of the 70 year olds  – Biden Bernie and Warren – many great new ideas that should be heard will be muted out. At the top of the list is Andrew Yang’s emphasis on the challenges and opportunities posed by the accelerating trends of Internet technology that involve Cloud Services, high speed public 5G networks and Artificial Intelligence (AI). We cannot lose the voice and ideas of Andrew Yang and many other Tier 2 and Tier 3 candidates. Their ideas are N-O-T expendable!